On Our Radar · March 11, 2026

When Correlations Go to 1

By Sardis Group

This week, two charts really caught our attention. The first from Bloomberg tells an interesting story about volatility:

Volatility Erupts All at Once - VIX, MOVE, VIXIG, and OVX — Source: Cboe Global Markets and Intercontinental Exchange

Similar to prior volatility storms, portfolio design can break down as correlations turn to 1. Equities and fixed income have all had negative total returns¹ from the day before the war began (2/27/26) through last night. For all the noise, fundamentals haven’t shifted. In fact, as a result of the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, tax refunds this year should be the largest in recent history as you can see in the chart below from Morgan Stanley.

Total Federal Tax Refunds, year-to-date comparison 2023 through 2026 — Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Should the shift higher in rates and the spike in oil prices hold for several months, that would reverse some of the gains in affordability. In the interim, the US Consumer is getting more money back this tax season.

If you would like to discuss these charts or anything else with respect to the market, please do not hesitate to reach out. As always, we appreciate your partnership.

SPX for equities (-1.37%); Bloomberg US Agg Total Return Index (-0.96%); Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Total Return Index (-0.22%).

Important Disclosures

This is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to purchase any security. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Sardis Credit Opportunities Fund (“Fund”) carefully before investing. This and other information are contained in the Fund’s prospectus, which may be obtained by contacting your financial professional, calling 404-282-5552, or visiting www.sardisgroup.com.

Information speaks as of the date hereof and is subject to change at any time without prior notice. Any discussion about the market and economic environment, including our opinions and expectations related thereto, represents an assessment at a specific point in time taking into account all information currently available to us and is not intended to be a forecast of future events nor a guarantee of future results.

This material includes information which has been obtained from unaffiliated third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Sardis Group. Although obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Sardis Group has not independently verified and does not guarantee the accuracy, correctness or completeness of such information, nor is such information intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions.

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